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Alternative Real Estate Solutions

February 3, 2010

Shadow Inventory Is Just The Top of The Iceberg

Filed under: Foreclosure, Uncategorized — Tags: — Marc @ 11:32 am

I need to thank my friend Dick Rosen (http://www.rosenprop.com/) and Dan Doran for help with this information.

If I have been in your living room in the past 3 years, this slide from Credit Suisse below is not news to you as  I’ve shared this slide with everyone I can as often as I can.   Last month we talked about Shadow Inventory and this month we’re again talking about the foreclosure boom that is about to hit.    Three weeks ago I had the opportunity to meet with on of Harry Dent’s (The Great Depression Ahead) analysts in Orlando.   He reminded me of that our near and present danger with regards to not only our aging demographics, but the looming threat of the Red Dragon coming up the path.  More on this later; however, I seriously urge you to read the above referenced book by Dent.

Brace for impact - foreclosure crisis coming to a head soon.  The next wave of foreclosures will include the ALT-A and Option Adjustable loans that were for the “good” borrowers.  Now (fast forward 3-5 years) those “good” borrowers aren’t so good anymore and are just as likely to walk from a current loan to realize and capture a “great deal” right down the street or across town.  The rational is, if I can buy a million dollar house for 650k, and my current 450k house is now worth 300k, it might make sense to trade up to capture this great buying opportunity.  Websites like http://youwalkaway.com/ are helping borrowers navigate the waters of foreclosure.

Back to the topic of today….. More foreclosures on the horizon.

Mortgage Rate Resets


 

 

December 21, 2009

Shadow Inventory is our next Adversary

Filed under: Uncategorized — Marc @ 3:23 pm

December 14, 2009

MARKET RECAP FOR DEC 2009

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: — Marc @ 10:28 am
“It’s getting better all the time” is the key refrain to the Beatles’ song Getting Better. That sentiment would have been foolish if it had been sung this time last year. Today, though, it appears to hold true, particularly now that we have finally received the break we have all been anticipating – a drop in unemployment.

On that front, the nation’s employers have stopped eliminating jobs en mass. The unemployment rate dipped to 10% in November. Many forecasters – and forecasting is a perilous endeavor, to be sure – believe hiring will hit stride late in the first quarter of 2010. If they are right, the employment recovery will come quicker compared to the previous two recessions (1991 and 2001) despite the greater severity of the current downturn.

More jobs, in turn, will help reduce the number of homeowners on the brink of foreclosure, which, by the way, has dropped for a fourth-straight month. One in every 417 homes received a foreclosure-related notice in November, but that is down 8% from October, according to numbers released by RealtyTrac.

We are not out of the woods yet. RealtyTrac expects foreclosure filings will post a second-consecutive record in 2009, with 3.9 million notices sent to homeowners in default, compared to 2008’s 3.2 million. However, if employment continues to improve, chances are good we will see a substantial reversal of that trend in 2010.

The drop in home values is another trend we expect to see reversed in 2010. According to real estate Web site Zillow, total home values in the U.S. declined by $489 billion in the first 11 months of 2009. That sounds like an astronomical figure, but it is actually an 87% improvement over the $3.6 trillion in lost homeowner value suffered in 2008.

More jobs could also reverse the trend in mortgage rates, pressuring rates to rise as loan demand increases. Though not showing signs of rising yet, mortgage rates have been at a plateau. Bankrate.com’s recent lender surveys suggest the downtrend is abating, with its most recent survey posting marginally higher rates than the previous week’s survey.

 

Economic
Indicator

Release
Date and Time

Consensus
Estimate

Analysis

Producer Price Index
(November)

Tues, Dec. 15,
8:30 am, et

Finished Goods: 0.7% (Increase)
Core: 0.2% (Increase)

Important. Rising producer prices will raise inflation concerns.

Industrial Production
(November)

Tues, Dec. 15,
9:15 am, et

0.3%
(Increase)

Moderately Important. Production is increasing to meet renewed consumer demand.

Housing Market Index
(December)

Tues, Dec. 15,
1:00 pm, et

19 Index

Important. Confidence is expected to receive a boost from extension of the homebuyer’s tax credit.

Mortgage Applications

Wed, Dec. 16,
7:00 am, et

None

Important. Purchase and refinance applications rise as the decrease in rates slows.

Consumer Price Index
(November)

Wed, Dec. 16,
8:30 am, et

Finished Goods: 0.3% (Increase)
Core: 0.1% (Increase)

Important. Consumer prices remain subdued but could be pushed higher on rising producer prices.

Housing Starts
(November)

Wed, Dec. 16,
8:30 am, et

560,000 (Annualized)

Important. Starts should rebound strongly after October’s decline.

Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting

Wed, Dec. 16,
2:15 pm, et

Federal Funds Rate: 0.0% to 0.25%

Very Important. The Fed is expected to hold short-term rates steady through the first quarter of 2010.

Leading Indicators
(November)

Thurs, Dec. 17,
8:30 am, et

0.6%
(Increase)

Moderately Important. The indicators suggest the recovery remains on track.

 

Are We There Yet?

We cannot say for sure, but we think we are darn close. Of course, we are speaking of the bottom in mortgage rates. Last week we explained how the Federal Reserve has influenced the market with its massive purchases of mortgage-backed securities. This week we offer statistical support for our contention that rates are at least close to bottoming, if not likely to reverse soon.

Calculated Risk, an insightful Web site that tracks the comings and goings of the housing and mortgage markets, supplied the evidence. Calculated Risk has noted (as have we) the close relationship between the 30-year conventional fixed-rate mortgage and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note. Based on statistical analysis reprinted on Calculated Risk’s Web site, the 30-year conventional fixed-rate mortgage is expected to rise to 5.4% based on the current 10-year Treasury yield of 3.45%.

We must be careful; statistics imply a certitude that does not always exist, but it is worth noting that the aforementioned model has a determination coefficient (statistic-speak for predictive value) of 0.97, which is very high. Today’s 30-year fixed-rate loan is lower than 5.4%, but Calculated Risk opines that the difference is due to prepayment speed and randomness and to the Federal Reserve’s purchases of mortgage-backed securities, which we expect to taper off considerably in coming months – and that’s key. When the Fed starts throttling back on theses purchases, look for mortgage rates to throttle higher

November 22, 2009

Think the recession is over?

Filed under: Uncategorized — Marc @ 2:31 pm

If you’re thinking the recession is over, not so for he housing market.  It’s reported that Chase is holding over 600,000 houses vacant.  Countrywide/Bank of America is twice as big as Chase - how many do you think are being held off the market from all the banks?   More in the next post; however, this article will help you understand where the market is today. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/delinquencies-foreclosures-break-record-mba-2009-11-19-10500

 

November 10, 2009

What is a Loan Modification?

Filed under: Uncategorized — Marc @ 9:53 pm

saw this great article on Loan Mods.

http://mandelman.ml-implode.com/2009/11/how-banks-view-loan-modification/

 

 

November 3, 2009

What Happens in Foreclosure in Minnesota

Filed under: Uncategorized — Marc @ 9:16 pm

The foreclosure process can be confusing. Many individuals are left not knowing exactly how the process works. Here is a month by month estimate of what happens to give you a better understanding of what happens. Remember that each situation is unique.

Month 1

Day 1 – Mortgage payment is late

Day 15 – Late fee charged if not yet paid

Month 2

Day 30 – Collection calls begin, loan is now in default status

Day 45 – Late charges accrue

Month 3

Day 60 – Lender gives deadline to bring all months current

Day 61 – If you have a conventional mortgage, the loan is sent to attorneys for foreclosure to begin

Month 4

Day 90 – Mortgage payments 1-4 are due

Day 91 – If you have a FHA mortgage, the loan is sent to attorneys for foreclosure to begin

Day 100 – Borrower receives acceleration letter from attorneys. ‘30 day intent foreclose’

Month 5

Day 130 – Acceleration letter expires. Foreclosure by advertisement runs in the paper for six weeks. The borrower now has that period to pay back all late payments. Attorney fees are added to the arrear of loan

Day 144 – Occupant of the property will be served with notice of foreclosure

Month 6

Day 174 – Final day to pay back arrears

Day 175 – Sheriff’s sale occurs at the courthouse in county where property is located

Redemption Period

The redemption period usually is 6 months long, there may be exceptions. During this period the owner has a couple of options, they can either sell the house or refinance to try and remain in the property.

Day 355 – If the loan is not paid off in full or possession is not kept, the owner must surrender the property

As you can see the process takes close to a year. If you are behind on payments, the best thing to do and do it right away is contact your lender. They will work with you to restructure or modify the loan. The longer you wait, the less and less chance you have of the lender doing so.

(thanks to by Jason Sandquist)

Housing Reports Deceptively Rebound In Minnesota for May 2009

Filed under: Uncategorized — Marc @ 9:11 pm

1,004. 1,046. 1,083. 1,078. 1,120. 1,185.

Notice a pattern? That’s the number of signed purchase agreements each of the last six weeks in the Twin Cities housing market, growing most weeks at the spring buyer market heats up. The 1,185 pending sales during the week of May 9 were a robust 26.6 percent higher than the same week in 2008. Over the last three months, there have been 2,228 more pending sales than the same time period last year!

There are some caveats to this good news.

1.) Traditional home sales (excluding foreclosures and short sales) over those last three months are down 17.6 percent from a year ago.

2.) Sales above $190,000 are down. 19.2 percent from a year ago.

3.) Sales of new construction homes are down 16.8 percent from a year ago.

Looking through a sharper lens is sometimes the best way to fully understand market dynamics.

Active Listings Current Inventory One Year Ago One Year Change
Inventory as of: 5/18/2009 26,419 33,193 -20.4%
New Listings Current Activity One Year Ago One Year Change
For the Week Ending: 5/9/2009 2,058 2,257 -8.8%
Pending Sales Current Activity One Year Ago One Year Change
For the Week Ending: 5/9/2009 1,185 936 +26.6%
Month Supply of Inventory May 2009 May 2008 Percent Change
7.7 10.2 -24.5%
Supply-Demand Ratio: May 2009 - 5.23 houses for sale per buyer
*Data collected from the Regional Multiple Listings Service, for residential properties in the 13 county region exclusively

March 26, 2009

Minneapolis Investment Property - 6925 Florida Ave, Brooklyn Park

Filed under: Uncategorized — Marc @ 12:30 pm

Minneapolis Investment Property - 6925 Florida Ave, Brooklyn Park

Posted using ShareThis

March 4, 2009

The Most for the Least

Filed under: Uncategorized — Marc @ 9:38 am

I was at my local REIA (real estate investors assocation) meeting last night and we were talking a bout foreclosure.

Mike Jacka, the host of the meeting showed this video below and I thought it was very thought provoking. My comments are below after you watch the video.

Charles Dickens’ “A Tale of of Two Cities” compared the fortunes of two protagonists who lived in Paris and London during the French Revolution. Paris was in a mob rule - full of chaos. Much like our foreclosure market. Then, there is London, repressed and quiet somewhat oblivious of what is going on in the other city.

In first housing marketing, many buyers/sellers find themselves in a deflationary reality where their home values, their neighbors home prices, and interest rates are dropping almost daily. REOs, short sale, foreclosures are all pulling the market down at a steady pace. This video talks about the affordability index. When affordability is at it’s lowest, it marks the peak in house prices, with a decline sure to follow. We’re now approaching unprecedented affordability index. The video stated the median income is 202% of what’s necessary to qualify for the median priced home. That means on average Minnesota’s make twice as much to qualify for our housing stock. Now is the time to upgrade and move up. If your thinking about buying, now is the time.

However, as an investment group, we are still seeing prices in a deflationary cycle. Therefore, we are trying to unload everything new we buy. We are not holding, unless it’s a can’t loose situation. The mobsters are the lenders and the government. However, things are soon to change.

The second market is one of inflationary price values. Inflation is bad - right? We’ve all learned that. How about hyper-inflation? This new “second” market will drive up prices once the built-in inflationary machine from the government begins gaining momentum. You think $4 gas was bad? Wait until you see $8 gas. Once we perceive prices going up, we will stop selling and spend as much of that cash that we’ve still got on more houses. We’ll let inflation drive up the prices while we rent them watching the prices go up and our rents increase.

stay tuned for more tips.

February 19, 2009

Funds available for the warzone

Filed under: Uncategorized — Marc @ 6:05 pm

I’ve never bought in the war zone. 

I guess I’ve never had a deisre to have my life threatened at or near one of my houses.   Of course that isn’t just necessarily restricted to the war zone.  I’ve felt very uncomfortable a few times at my apartment building in Fridley; then there was the time my tenant tried to blow up the house with me in it,  by leaving the gas line open.  In any case, the war zone has it’s own business model. 

For those that read this blog, many of you know my good friend Brian Dickerson (www.briandickersonflips.com).  He knows more than anyone about working in the war zone.  He made his living in the neighborhoods where you needed a gun in order to fit in.

Below I’ve included an article that talks about free money available for real estate.   Who says there is no such thing as a free lunch?    

Here’s the business model. 
Identify a house to buy at 40% of value.  Hopefully it needs < 20k in work, and you’re buying it for about 20k (*worth about 80k).   Buy the house using the money talked about below and a little of your own if needed.   Fix and flip.  Fix and flip.  It’s a great cash strategy (strategy to bring you cash).
More tips soon.   If you’d like to sell your home, please visit our website at http://LakesAreaHomeBuyers.com

Housing: Agency collaboration could ease foreclosure crisis in Minnesota

by Scott Carlson Staff Writer

F&C file photo
F&C file photo

Humphrey Institute panel says Minnesota could be role model in search for housing solutions

The foreclosure crisis is sweeping across Minnesota, just like other states. And some areas, such as north Minneapolis – with triple the foreclosure rates of that city’s other neighborhoods – have been particularly devastated.

And yet, some housing experts see a glimmer of hope in the coalition of agencies, organizations and individual efforts converging to solve Minnesota’s problems.

Several Twin Cities housing experts, speaking at a Humphrey Institute forum Thursday, said Minnesota could even wind up serving as a role model of how the United States may be able to extricate itself from the nation’s growing mortgage foreclosure crisis.

Minnesota is “at the forefront of the mortgage-foreclosure recovery,’’ contended Thomas Fulton, president of the Minneapolis-based Family Housing Fund. “The housing industry (in Minnesota) has built a tradition of collaboration.’’

Fulton said a key source of collaboration is the Minnesota Foreclosure Partners Council, whose more than 20 members include cities, housing agencies, counties, trade groups and state agencies. Formed in 2007, the nonprofit council’s mission has been to develop a rapid, coordinated response to the mortgage foreclosure crisis affecting the Twin Cities and greater Minnesota. Its ultimate goal is to help stabilize neighborhoods and assist families recover from foreclosures, or help avoid the process altogether.

The Council’s efforts come at a time when foreclosures in Minnesota have gone from 6,500 in 2005 to nearly 30,000 in 2008. In north Minneapolis, about a fifth of the homes are in foreclosure; in other areas of the city, the rate is still less than 10 percent of neighborhood homes.

Fulton conceded that there are no signs the foreclosure crisis will abate any time soon, but added that “we are in a good position to act decisively … on the issue.’’

Carolyn Olson, president of the Greater Metropolitan Housing Corp. in Minneapolis, said her group has bought nearly 160 foreclosed homes in north Minneapolis since mid-2007 for rehab and resale. The GMHC has carried out the program largely with $10 million from the Minnesota Housing Finance Agency.

Olson said this pool of money is often helping her group beat speculators in bidding to buy foreclosed properties. Increasingly, GMHC is looking to sell homes to low- and moderate-income families on contract for deeds when they are having trouble getting mortgages because of the lack of traditional financing, she said.

Olson also noted that her group has been one of the first in the nation to benefit from the National Community Stabilization Trust, which is allowing Minneapolis and St. Paul, as pilot cities, to acquire foreclosed properties before they are put on the market. Under this program, the GMHC has looked at nearly 493 properties since September and closed on 23, she said.

Given these kinds of initiatives, the GMHC is starting to help push back up home values in north Minneapolis, Olson said. And the group’s efforts of restoring homes – in some cases, five to seven homes on a block at the same time – are giving local residents hope that their neighborhood is due for a rebound, she said.

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